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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and caused disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.

That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."

New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Each writes two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social data, previous instances and structural examples.

Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"The Irish government must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed here and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has possesses something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."

Appeal for Wider Debate

Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."