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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward formula. It frequently functions as a type of apology. Sorry we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who oversaw the biggest improvement wins the prize. In practice, it sparks an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent coaching or simply the greatest surprise.

Yet the latest competition is profoundly different. The list of nominees is remarkably strong. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with reigning conference winners falling away and longtime strugglers rising collectively. During an ordinary season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in this turbulent and fun year, he's competing with multiple other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the projected vote could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been given the opportunity to display his rare talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's sustained dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than freelancing. It is an offense constructed entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a innovative passing attack that springs wide receiver targets consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when openings haven't been available, he's been capable to conjure big plays out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Virtually each gamble – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the organization with the immense expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme dork but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a normal year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet the current isn't a normal campaign!

The area where his candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for long-term winning. However Johnson falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the off-field stuff, which was not a guarantee following his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect staff cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen trusted newbies. From the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. But Coen has pulled everyone and everything together.

After an early hot start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason setback caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed after that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still