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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare

The succession of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".

Nighttime Reality

As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.

Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles targeted at a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.

Persistent Threats

Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.

With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a reliance that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the short term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.

Every new initiative from US leadership follows the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, no doubt, persist.

Strategic Calculations

It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the coming year.

Divergent Views

Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the result.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.

Current Realities

Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.

These two forces are guiding negotiations.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a just a single week to terminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.

While new proposals based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.